Player breakdown
Drew Lock
Missouri · 2019 Draft Class
6-4228 lbs2nd round, 42nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
14%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | DEN | 5 | 5 | 100 | 156 | 1,020 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 0 | 7 |
| 2020 | DEN | 13 | 13 | 254 | 443 | 2,933 | 16 | 15 | 160 | 3 | 19 |
| 2021 | DEN | 6 | 3 | 67 | 111 | 787 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 2 | 4 |
| 2023 | SEA | 4 | 2 | 48 | 76 | 543 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 3 |
| 2024 | NYG | 8 | 5 | 107 | 181 | 1,071 | 6 | 5 | 133 | 2 | 8 |
| 2025 | SEA | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Missouri | SEC | 0 | 129 | 263 | 1,332 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 1 | 5 |
| 2016 | Missouri | SEC | 11 | 237 | 434 | 3,399 | 23 | 10 | 123 | 1 | 24 |
| 2017 | Missouri | SEC | 11 | 224 | 385 | 3,695 | 43 | 12 | 111 | 1 | 44 |
| 2018 | Missouri | SEC | 11 | 252 | 399 | 3,125 | 25 | 8 | 145 | 6 | 31 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
14%
ML model output
Context Prob
14%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.93 — elite athletic ceiling+0.365
4.12s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
11,551 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+1.8) — getting better faster each year-0.397
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.367
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.353