Player breakdown
Drew Mestemaker
North Texas · 2028 Draft Class
Undrafted / UpcomingAge: ~19
High
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $2.5M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
60%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Texas | American Athletic | 14 | 297 | 430 | 3,911 | 16 | 7 | 239 | 3 | 19 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
60%
ML model output
Context Prob
60%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1955 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.349
3,911 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.281
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.258
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+3911.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
279.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.327