Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Drew Stanton
Drew Stanton

Player breakdown

Drew Stanton

Michigan St. · 2007 Draft Class

6-3226 lbs2nd round, 43rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

10%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2008DET30917119102001
2009DET312651259063311
2010DET63691197804311315
2014ARI981322401,711756307
2015ARI70112510402-1300
2016ARI51194819223-302
2017ARI547915989465706
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003Michigan StateBig Ten32340005211
2004Michigan StateBig Ten81412201,60186687513
2005Michigan StateBig Ten112363543,0772212338426
2006Michigan StateBig Ten81642691,8071210445517

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

10%

ML model output

Context Prob

10%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.91 — elite athletic ceiling+0.359
4.41s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
6,525 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+75.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.350
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.347

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)