Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Dwayne Haskins
Dwayne Haskins

Player breakdown

Dwayne Haskins

Ohio St. · 2019 Draft Class

6-3231 lbs1st round, 15th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

54%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019WAS971192031,3657710107
2020WAS761482411,439574616
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017Ohio StateBig Ten34057565418604
2018Ohio StateBig Ten133484964,580478122451

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

54%

ML model output

Context Prob

54%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+4015 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
5,145 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.258

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.86 — elite athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+7.1) — getting better faster each year-0.390
321.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)