Player breakdown
EJ Manuel
Florida St. · 2013 Draft Class
6-5237 lbs1st round, 16th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~36
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
11%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | BUF | 10 | 10 | 180 | 306 | 1,972 | 11 | 9 | 186 | 2 | 13 |
| 2014 | BUF | 5 | 4 | 76 | 131 | 838 | 5 | 3 | 52 | 1 | 6 |
| 2015 | BUF | 7 | 2 | 52 | 84 | 561 | 3 | 3 | 64 | 1 | 4 |
| 2016 | BUF | 6 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 131 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | OAK | 2 | 1 | 24 | 43 | 265 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Florida State | ACC | 3 | 69 | 106 | 817 | 2 | 6 | 196 | 2 | 4 |
| 2010 | Florida State | ACC | 4 | 54 | 78 | 777 | 3 | 4 | 124 | 1 | 4 |
| 2011 | Florida State | ACC | 9 | 183 | 280 | 2,417 | 16 | 8 | 171 | 4 | 20 |
| 2012 | Florida State | ACC | 11 | 263 | 387 | 3,392 | 23 | 10 | 310 | 4 | 27 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
11%
ML model output
Context Prob
11%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.97 — elite athletic ceiling+0.366
4.21s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
7,403 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+3.1) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.334
274.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.327