Player breakdown
Ethan Grunkemeyer
Penn State · 2026 Draft Class
Undrafted / UpcomingAge: ~19
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
28%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Penn State | Big Ten | 9 | 116 | 152 | 1,132 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 2 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
28%
ML model output
Context Prob
28%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,132 career receiving yards — modest volume+0.281
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.269
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.554
Improvement accelerating (+1132.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
125.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.325