Player breakdown
Fernando Mendoza
Indiana · 2026 Draft Class
6-5236 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~19
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1All-American x1
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 2362NIL Contract Value: $4.1M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | Big Ten | 16 | 256 | 362 | 3,271 | 21 | 6 | 400 | 2 | 23 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
66%
ML model output
Context Prob
66%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+3271 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
3,271 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.267
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.63 — strong athletic ceiling-0.574
Improvement accelerating (+3271.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
204.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335