Player breakdown
Gardner Minshew II
Washington St. · 2019 Draft Class
6-1225 lbs6th round, 178th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~30
HighUnitas x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
70%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | JAX | 14 | 12 | 285 | 470 | 3,271 | 21 | 6 | 344 | 0 | 21 |
| 2020 | JAX | 9 | 8 | 216 | 327 | 2,259 | 16 | 5 | 153 | 1 | 17 |
| 2021 | PHI | 4 | 2 | 41 | 60 | 439 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4 |
| 2022 | PHI | 5 | 2 | 44 | 76 | 663 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 2023 | IND | 17 | 13 | 305 | 490 | 3,305 | 15 | 9 | 100 | 3 | 18 |
| 2024 | LVR | 10 | 9 | 203 | 306 | 2,013 | 9 | 10 | 58 | 0 | 9 |
| 2025 | KAN | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | East Carolina | American Athletic | 6 | 119 | 202 | 1,347 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2017 | East Carolina | American Athletic | 8 | 174 | 304 | 2,140 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 2018 | Washington State | Pac-12 | 12 | 433 | 613 | 4,477 | 36 | 9 | 103 | 3 | 39 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
67%
ML model output
Context Prob
67%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1565 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4.45s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
4,477 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.85 — elite athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+2.3) — getting better faster each year-0.383
373.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341