Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Garrett Gilbert
Garrett Gilbert

Player breakdown

Garrett Gilbert

SMU · 2014 Draft Class

6th round, 214th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

13%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018CAR10234000000
2019CLE5003000-300
2020DAL112138243112801
2021WAS11203119400000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2009TexasSEC1306631024513
2010TexasSEC92604412,7441017380515
2011TexasSEC11531247121501
2012SMUACC102685062,9321515346823
2013SMUACC93355043,528217267627

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

13%

ML model output

Context Prob

13%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

6,460 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.281
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.252

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.557
Improvement accelerating (+10.4) — getting better faster each year-0.390
340.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.333

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)