Player breakdown
Garrett Grayson
Colorado St. · 2015 Draft Class
6-2213 lbs3rd round, 75th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 3 | 43 | 77 | 542 | 2 | 6 | 193 | 1 | 3 |
| 2012 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 4 | 78 | 138 | 946 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 8 |
| 2013 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 9 | 266 | 428 | 3,327 | 21 | 10 | 109 | 2 | 23 |
| 2014 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 11 | 250 | 386 | 3,779 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
8%
ML model output
Context Prob
8%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1079 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
8,594 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.253
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+6.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
318.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343