Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Garrett Grayson
Garrett Grayson

Player breakdown

Garrett Grayson

Colorado St. · 2015 Draft Class

6-2213 lbs3rd round, 75th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

8%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011Colorado StateMountain West343775422619313
2012Colorado StateMountain West478138946731318
2013Colorado StateMountain West92664283,3272110109223
2014Colorado StateMountain West112503863,7793260032

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

8%

ML model output

Context Prob

8%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1079 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
8,594 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.253

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+6.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
318.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)