Player breakdown
Geno Smith
West Virginia · 2013 Draft Class
6-2218 lbs2nd round, 39th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
High25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | NYJ | 16 | 16 | 247 | 443 | 3,046 | 12 | 21 | 366 | 6 | 18 |
| 2014 | NYJ | 14 | 13 | 219 | 367 | 2,525 | 13 | 13 | 238 | 1 | 14 |
| 2015 | NYJ | 1 | 0 | 27 | 42 | 265 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 2 |
| 2016 | NYJ | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 126 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| 2017 | NYG | 2 | 1 | 21 | 36 | 212 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| 2018 | LAC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | SEA | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | SEA | 4 | 3 | 65 | 95 | 702 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 6 |
| 2022 | SEA | 17 | 17 | 399 | 572 | 4,282 | 30 | 11 | 366 | 1 | 31 |
| 2023 | SEA | 15 | 15 | 323 | 499 | 3,624 | 20 | 9 | 155 | 1 | 21 |
| 2024 | SEA | 17 | 17 | 407 | 578 | 4,320 | 21 | 15 | 272 | 2 | 23 |
| 2025 | LVR | 15 | 15 | 302 | 448 | 3,025 | 19 | 17 | 109 | 0 | 19 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 1 | 32 | 49 | 309 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2010 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 10 | 219 | 333 | 2,567 | 23 | 6 | 158 | 0 | 23 |
| 2011 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 11 | 314 | 483 | 3,978 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| 2012 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 12 | 369 | 518 | 4,205 | 42 | 6 | 151 | 2 | 44 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
58%
ML model output
Context Prob
58%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.93 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
Strong ascending production slope (+1298 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
11,059 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+12.6) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.353
325.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345