Player breakdown
Graham Mertz
Florida · 2025 Draft Class
6-3212 lbs6th round, 197th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~25
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $3.8M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
22%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 0 | 9 | 10 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 3 | 118 | 193 | 1,238 | 9 | 5 | 38 | 2 | 11 |
| 2021 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 7 | 158 | 269 | 1,821 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2022 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 0 | 164 | 286 | 2,136 | 19 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| 2023 | Florida | SEC | 11 | 261 | 358 | 2,903 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| 2024 | Florida | SEC | 5 | 72 | 94 | 791 | 6 | 2 | 56 | 1 | 7 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
22%
ML model output
Context Prob
22%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.275
3,694 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.554
Improvement accelerating (+38.8) — getting better faster each year-0.390
230.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.327