Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Greg McElroy
Greg McElroy

Player breakdown

Greg McElroy

Alabama · 2011 Draft Class

6-2220 lbs7th round, 208th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

3%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012NYJ211931214113001
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2007AlabamaSEC1897310001
2008AlabamaSEC181112311001
2009AlabamaSEC101983252,50817483118
2010AlabamaSEC112092962,7671950019

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

3%

ML model output

Context Prob

3%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.45s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
5,471 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.232

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.554
Improvement accelerating (+36.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
237.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.322

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)