Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ian Book
Ian Book

Player breakdown

Ian Book

Notre Dame · 2021 Draft Class

6-0211 lbs4th round, 133rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~28
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

5%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2021NOR11122013502600
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017Notre DameFBS Independents232562922317002
2018Notre DameFBS Independents91972802,468196250423
2019Notre DameFBS Independents112203712,787336516437
2020Notre DameFBS Independents102283532,830153485924

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

5%

ML model output

Context Prob

5%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.19s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
8,377 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
121 yards per TD — big-play production pattern+0.171

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.88 — elite athletic ceiling-0.437
Improvement accelerating (+8.7) — getting better faster each year-0.397
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.359

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)