Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jake Haener
Jake Haener

Player breakdown

Jake Haener

Fresno St. · 2023 Draft Class

6-0207 lbs4th round, 127th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2024NOR811839226112201
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018WashingtonBig Ten191310711001
2020Fresno StateMountain West61502322,02114518317
2021Fresno StateMountain West123034493,8103293335
2022Fresno StateMountain West02283142,6161830018

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

41%

ML model output

Context Prob

41%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

8,447 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.249

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.57 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+34.6) — getting better faster each year-0.390
469.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)