Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jake Locker
Jake Locker

Player breakdown

Jake Locker

Washington · 2011 Draft Class

6-2231 lbs1st round, 8th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

15%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011TEN503466542405615
2012TEN11111773142,1761011291111
2013TEN771111831,25684155210
2014TEN75861469935714216
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2007WashingtonBig Ten111553282,06214159861327
2008WashingtonBig Ten250935121018034
2009WashingtonBig Ten122303952,8002111388728
2010WashingtonBig Ten101793162,209179302522

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

15%

ML model output

Context Prob

15%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.99 — elite athletic ceiling+0.355
Improvement accelerating (+0.4) — getting better faster each year+0.344
4.12s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269

Top Negative Factors

Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.350
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.332
4 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)