Player breakdown
Jake Luton
Oregon St. · 2020 Draft Class
6-6224 lbs6th round, 189th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~30
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
16%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | JAX | 3 | 3 | 60 | 110 | 624 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 3 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Idaho | Big Sky | 0 | 49 | 78 | 383 | 1 | 4 | 73 | 5 | 6 |
| 2017 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 3 | 83 | 135 | 853 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 4 |
| 2018 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 6 | 140 | 224 | 1,660 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 2019 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 9 | 222 | 358 | 2,714 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
16%
ML model output
Context Prob
16%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
5,227 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.269
124 yards per TD — big-play production pattern+0.181
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.62 — strong athletic ceiling-0.546
Improvement accelerating (+6.1) — getting better faster each year-0.397
290.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.334