Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jake Rudock
Jake Rudock

Player breakdown

Jake Rudock

Michigan · 2016 Draft Class

6th round, 191st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

47%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017DET30352401000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2013IowaBig Ten111953242,2811812223523
2014IowaBig Ten102113372,404165154319
2015MichiganBig Ten02293582,739179137421

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

47%

ML model output

Context Prob

47%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.344
2,739 career receiving yards — strong volume+0.281
0 season(s) at 80+ ypg — no elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
0.0 career ypg — limited college production-0.333
Best-season yards rank: top 71% in class — average-0.279

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)