Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts

Player breakdown

Jalen Hurts

Oklahoma · 2020 Draft Class

6-1222 lbs2nd round, 53rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
High25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

70%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2020PHI154771481,0616435439
2021PHI15152654323,1441697841026
2022PHI15153064603,7012267601335
2023PHI17173525383,85823156051538
2024PHI15152483612,9031856301432
2025PHI16162944543,224256421833
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2016AlabamaSEC122203372,5922298411234
2017AlabamaSEC111352221,940151768823
2018AlabamaSEC7506775582167210
2019OklahomaSEC132223093,6343271,2551850

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

70%

ML model output

Context Prob

70%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.93 — elite athletic ceiling+0.375
Improvement accelerating (+0.4) — getting better faster each year+0.351
3,634 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

279.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
Height-adjusted speed: 4.53s — below average speed for frame-0.315
Composite college score: 7 — average multi-metric profile-0.261

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)