Player breakdown
JaMarcus Russell
LSU · 2007 Draft Class
6-5265 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~41
HighManning x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
72%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | OAK | 4 | 1 | 36 | 66 | 373 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 2008 | OAK | 15 | 15 | 198 | 368 | 2,423 | 13 | 8 | 127 | 1 | 14 |
| 2009 | OAK | 12 | 9 | 120 | 246 | 1,287 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 0 | 3 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | LSU | SEC | 5 | 61 | 129 | 925 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2005 | LSU | SEC | 12 | 188 | 311 | 2,443 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2006 | LSU | SEC | 11 | 211 | 308 | 2,797 | 26 | 7 | 126 | 0 | 26 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
29%
ML model output
Context Prob
29%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 1.00 — elite athletic ceiling+0.355
6,165 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Strong ascending production slope (+936 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.207
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+2.0) — getting better faster each year-0.397
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.367
220.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.334