Player breakdown
Jameis Winston
Florida St. · 2015 Draft Class
6-4231 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~32
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1All-American x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 2205NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | TAM | 16 | 16 | 312 | 535 | 4,042 | 22 | 15 | 213 | 6 | 28 |
| 2016 | TAM | 16 | 16 | 345 | 567 | 4,090 | 28 | 18 | 165 | 1 | 29 |
| 2017 | TAM | 13 | 13 | 282 | 442 | 3,504 | 19 | 11 | 135 | 1 | 20 |
| 2018 | TAM | 11 | 9 | 244 | 378 | 2,992 | 19 | 14 | 281 | 1 | 20 |
| 2019 | TAM | 16 | 16 | 380 | 626 | 5,109 | 33 | 30 | 250 | 1 | 34 |
| 2020 | NOR | 4 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | NOR | 7 | 7 | 95 | 161 | 1,170 | 14 | 3 | 166 | 1 | 15 |
| 2022 | NOR | 3 | 3 | 73 | 115 | 858 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 4 |
| 2023 | NOR | 7 | 0 | 25 | 47 | 264 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 0 | 2 |
| 2024 | CLE | 12 | 7 | 181 | 296 | 2,121 | 13 | 12 | 83 | 1 | 14 |
| 2025 | NYG | 3 | 2 | 37 | 66 | 567 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 3 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Florida State | ACC | 13 | 237 | 349 | 3,820 | 38 | 10 | 193 | 4 | 42 |
| 2014 | Florida State | ACC | 12 | 276 | 422 | 3,559 | 24 | 17 | 80 | 3 | 27 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
65%
ML model output
Context Prob
65%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.351
4.36s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
7,379 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.480
295.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.71s — below average speed for frame-0.289