Predicting the Pros
Predictions/James Kilian
James Kilian

Player breakdown

James Kilian

Tulsa · 2005 Draft Class

7th round, 229th overallAge: ~41
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

42%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003TulsaAmerican Athletic34786414009111
2004TulsaAmerican Athletic101843372,2421316282821

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

42%

ML model output

Context Prob

42%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1828 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.349
2,656 career receiving yards — strong volume+0.281
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.264

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.554
Improvement accelerating (+4.4) — getting better faster each year-0.390
204.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.325

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)