Predicting the Pros
Predictions/James Morgan
James Morgan

Player breakdown

James Morgan

Florida International · 2020 Draft Class

6-4229 lbs4th round, 125th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~29
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

44%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2016Bowling GreenMid-American61833262,08216150016
2017Bowling GreenMid-American5962121,26097009
2018Florida InternationalConference USA112133262,7272670026
2019Florida InternationalConference USA91853192,2481330013

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

44%

ML model output

Context Prob

44%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.412
Improvement accelerating (+0.3) — getting better faster each year+0.351
4.64s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

248.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341
Height-adjusted speed: 4.63s — below average speed for frame-0.295
Best-season yards rank: top 69% in class — average-0.286

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)