Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jared Goff
Jared Goff

Player breakdown

Jared Goff

California · 2016 Draft Class

6-4215 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~31
High25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

60%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2016LAR771122051,089571616
2017LAR15152964773,80428751129
2018LAR16163645614,6883212108234
2019LAR16163946264,638221640224
2020LAR15153705523,952201399424
2021DET14143324943,24519887019
2022DET17173825874,43829773029
2023DET17174076054,575301221232
2024DET17173905394,629371256037
2025DET17173935784,56434845034
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2013CaliforniaACC83205313,50818100018
2014CaliforniaACC113165093,9733570035
2015CaliforniaACC03164924,25237138037

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

60%

ML model output

Context Prob

60%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.345
4.47s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
11,733 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
617.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.57s — below average speed for frame-0.282

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)