Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jaren Hall
Jaren Hall

Player breakdown

Jaren Hall

BYU · 2023 Draft Class

6-0207 lbs5th round, 164th overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~28
HighMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2023MIN321320168011400
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018BYUBig 12000000400
2019BYUBig 12231464201013934
2021BYUBig 1291892962,583205307323
2022BYUBig 1202483763,171316346334

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

58%

ML model output

Context Prob

58%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1375 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.278
6,174 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.57 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+6.5) — getting better faster each year-0.397
561.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)