Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jarrett Stidham
Jarrett Stidham

Player breakdown

Jarrett Stidham

Auburn · 2019 Draft Class

6-2218 lbs4th round, 133rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~30
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

7%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019NWE30241401-200
2020NWE50224425623702
2022LVR525383656438404
2023DEN32406649621802
2024DEN3000000500
2025DEN1000000-100
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2015BaylorBig 120751091,26512270214
2017AuburnSEC112183272,827174178421
2018AuburnSEC102093482,4211350013

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

7%

ML model output

Context Prob

7%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.33s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
5,248 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.551
Improvement accelerating (+1.2) — getting better faster each year-0.390
249.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)