Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jason Campbell
Jason Campbell

Player breakdown

Jason Campbell

Auburn · 2005 Draft Class

6-5230 lbs1st round, 25th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~44
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

23%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006WAS771102071,297106107010
2007WAS13132504172,7001211185113
2008WAS16163155063,245136258114
2009WAS16163275073,6182015236121
2010OAK13121943292,387138222114
2011OAK661001651,170646028
2012CHI613251265222802
2013CLE981803172,015118107011
2014CIN4011197400100
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003AuburnSEC131953002,246111205112
2004AuburnSEC111772542,51119633322

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

23%

ML model output

Context Prob

23%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.94 — elite athletic ceiling+0.355
Improvement accelerating (+0.1) — getting better faster each year+0.344
4,757 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

198.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.318
Height-adjusted speed: 4.40s — good speed for frame-0.295
Best-season yards rank: top 67% in class — average-0.286

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)