Player breakdown
Jaxson Dart
Mississippi · 2025 Draft Class
6-2223 lbs1st round, 25th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~23
HighAll-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $3.3M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NYG | 14 | 12 | 216 | 339 | 2,272 | 15 | 5 | 487 | 9 | 24 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | USC | Big Ten | 6 | 117 | 189 | 1,353 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 2 | 11 |
| 2022 | Ole Miss | SEC | 0 | 201 | 321 | 2,613 | 18 | 8 | 548 | 0 | 18 |
| 2023 | Ole Miss | SEC | 13 | 208 | 318 | 2,985 | 20 | 5 | 377 | 7 | 27 |
| 2024 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 249 | 363 | 3,875 | 25 | 6 | 452 | 3 | 28 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
47%
ML model output
Context Prob
47%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
9,473 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.249
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.60 — strong athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+1.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
378.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345