Player breakdown
Jay Cutler
Vanderbilt · 2006 Draft Class
6-3226 lbs1st round, 11th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
44%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | DEN | 5 | 5 | 81 | 137 | 1,001 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 9 |
| 2007 | DEN | 16 | 16 | 297 | 467 | 3,497 | 20 | 14 | 205 | 1 | 21 |
| 2008 | DEN | 16 | 16 | 384 | 616 | 4,526 | 25 | 18 | 200 | 2 | 27 |
| 2009 | CHI | 16 | 16 | 336 | 555 | 3,666 | 27 | 26 | 173 | 1 | 28 |
| 2010 | CHI | 15 | 15 | 261 | 432 | 3,274 | 23 | 16 | 232 | 1 | 24 |
| 2011 | CHI | 10 | 10 | 182 | 314 | 2,319 | 13 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 14 |
| 2012 | CHI | 15 | 15 | 255 | 434 | 3,033 | 19 | 14 | 233 | 0 | 19 |
| 2013 | CHI | 11 | 11 | 224 | 355 | 2,621 | 19 | 12 | 118 | 0 | 19 |
| 2014 | CHI | 15 | 15 | 370 | 561 | 3,812 | 28 | 18 | 191 | 2 | 30 |
| 2015 | CHI | 15 | 15 | 311 | 483 | 3,659 | 21 | 11 | 201 | 1 | 22 |
| 2016 | CHI | 5 | 5 | 81 | 137 | 1,059 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 4 |
| 2017 | MIA | 14 | 14 | 266 | 429 | 2,666 | 19 | 14 | 32 | 0 | 19 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 11 | 189 | 299 | 2,280 | 19 | 1 | 485 | 0 | 19 |
| 2004 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 8 | 147 | 241 | 1,844 | 10 | 5 | 349 | 6 | 16 |
| 2005 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 9 | 273 | 462 | 3,073 | 21 | 9 | 215 | 1 | 22 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
44%
ML model output
Context Prob
44%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.90 — elite athletic ceiling+0.365
Improvement accelerating (+0.3) — getting better faster each year+0.344
4.26s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
Top Negative Factors
257.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319
Height-adjusted speed: 4.58s — below average speed for frame-0.295