Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels

Player breakdown

Jayden Daniels

LSU · 2024 Draft Class

6-4210 lbs1st round, 2nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~25
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1Unitas x1All-American x1All-Conference x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 6Heisman votes: 2029NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2024WAS17173314803,568259891631
2025WAS771141881,26283278210
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019Arizona StateBig 1281933102,748172319320
2020Arizona StateBig 12449847015122349
2021Arizona StateBig 1291862802,221109670616
2022LSUSEC02543712,7741638181127
2023LSUSEC122363273,8124041,1341050

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

74%

ML model output

Context Prob

74%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.4) — getting better faster each year+0.345
6,586 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
548.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.279

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)