Player breakdown
Jeff Smoker
Michigan St. · 2004 Draft Class
6-3223 lbs6th round, 201st overallAge: ~41
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
30%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 13 | 321 | 491 | 3,387 | 22 | 1 | 83 | 3 | 25 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
30%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.344
4.36s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
3,387 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.85 — elite athletic ceiling-0.574
260.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335
Height-adjusted speed: 4.75s — below average speed for frame-0.309