Player breakdown
J.J. McCarthy
Michigan · 2024 Draft Class
6-3219 lbs1st round, 10th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~23
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
38%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | MIN | 10 | 10 | 140 | 243 | 1,632 | 11 | 12 | 181 | 4 | 15 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Michigan | Big Ten | 4 | 27 | 42 | 385 | 4 | 2 | 100 | 2 | 6 |
| 2022 | Michigan | Big Ten | 0 | 188 | 288 | 2,376 | 20 | 3 | 254 | 4 | 24 |
| 2023 | Michigan | Big Ten | 15 | 213 | 287 | 2,630 | 19 | 4 | 146 | 3 | 22 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
38%
ML model output
Context Prob
38%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1122 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
5,391 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
4.23s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.270
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.60 — strong athletic ceiling-0.546
Improvement accelerating (+5.8) — getting better faster each year-0.397
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.352