Player breakdown
Joe Burrow
LSU · 2020 Draft Class
6-3221 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~29
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1Unitas x1All-American x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 5Heisman votes: 2608NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | CIN | 10 | 10 | 264 | 404 | 2,688 | 13 | 5 | 142 | 3 | 16 |
| 2021 | CIN | 16 | 16 | 366 | 520 | 4,611 | 34 | 14 | 118 | 2 | 36 |
| 2022 | CIN | 16 | 16 | 414 | 606 | 4,475 | 35 | 12 | 257 | 5 | 40 |
| 2023 | CIN | 10 | 10 | 244 | 365 | 2,309 | 15 | 6 | 88 | 0 | 15 |
| 2024 | CIN | 17 | 17 | 460 | 652 | 4,918 | 43 | 9 | 201 | 2 | 45 |
| 2025 | CIN | 8 | 8 | 173 | 259 | 1,809 | 17 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 17 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 3 | 22 | 28 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 3 |
| 2017 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 0 | 7 | 11 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | LSU | SEC | 8 | 198 | 345 | 2,500 | 12 | 4 | 375 | 7 | 19 |
| 2019 | LSU | SEC | 13 | 342 | 439 | 4,715 | 48 | 6 | 289 | 3 | 51 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
82%
ML model output
Context Prob
82%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1496 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
7,215 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.60 — strong athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+19.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
343.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345