Player breakdown
John Beck
BYU · 2007 Draft Class
6-2215 lbs2nd round, 40th overallAge at Draft: 26Age: ~45
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
18%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | MIA | 5 | 4 | 60 | 107 | 559 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 2 |
| 2011 | WAS | 4 | 3 | 80 | 132 | 858 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 4 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | BYU | Big 12 | 3 | 34 | 61 | 318 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 1 |
| 2004 | BYU | Big 12 | 8 | 192 | 344 | 2,563 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2005 | BYU | Big 12 | 9 | 296 | 460 | 3,357 | 24 | 11 | 19 | 2 | 26 |
| 2006 | BYU | Big 12 | 10 | 261 | 371 | 3,510 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
18%
ML model output
Context Prob
18%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1064 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.314
4.17s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
9,748 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.574
Improvement accelerating (+10.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.347