Predicting the Pros
Predictions/John Navarre
John Navarre

Player breakdown

John Navarre

Michigan · 2004 Draft Class

6-6246 lbs7th round, 202nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~45
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

37%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2004ARI11184016814001
2005ARI10142417411001
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003MichiganBig Ten132854573,30024076024

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

37%

ML model output

Context Prob

37%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.344
4.46s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
3,300 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.88 — elite athletic ceiling-0.453
253.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.346
Height-adjusted speed: 4.79s — below average speed for frame-0.309

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)