Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Johnny Manziel
Johnny Manziel

Player breakdown

Johnny Manziel

Texas A&M · 2014 Draft Class

6-0207 lbs1st round, 22nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~33
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1All-American x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 2029NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

92%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2014CLE521835175022911
2015CLE961292231,5007523007
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012Texas A&MSEC112954343,7062691,4102147
2013Texas A&MSEC122703913,7323313686841

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

44%

ML model output

Context Prob

44%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.0) — getting better faster each year+0.345
4.03s short shuttle — elite lateral quickness+0.277
7,438 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.86 — elite athletic ceiling-0.566
323.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
Height-adjusted speed: 4.68s — below average speed for frame-0.297

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)