Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jordan Palmer
Jordan Palmer

Player breakdown

Jordan Palmer

Texas-El Paso · 2007 Draft Class

6-6231 lbs6th round, 205th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

30%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2008CIN307124102400
2010CIN10331800000
2014TEN1013700-100
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003UTEPConference USA22041230105312
2004UTEPConference USA81913242,49424160024
2005UTEPConference USA112444013,34028180028
2006UTEPConference USA112824293,59526140026

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

30%

ML model output

Context Prob

30%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1121 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4.58s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
9,659 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.88 — elite athletic ceiling-0.434
Improvement accelerating (+14.6) — getting better faster each year-0.397
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.353

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)