Player breakdown
Josh Allen
Wyoming · 2018 Draft Class
6-5237 lbs1st round, 7th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
42%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | BUF | 12 | 11 | 169 | 320 | 2,074 | 10 | 12 | 631 | 8 | 18 |
| 2019 | BUF | 16 | 16 | 271 | 461 | 3,089 | 20 | 9 | 510 | 9 | 29 |
| 2020 | BUF | 16 | 16 | 396 | 572 | 4,544 | 37 | 10 | 421 | 8 | 45 |
| 2021 | BUF | 17 | 17 | 409 | 646 | 4,407 | 36 | 15 | 763 | 6 | 42 |
| 2022 | BUF | 16 | 16 | 359 | 567 | 4,283 | 35 | 14 | 762 | 7 | 42 |
| 2023 | BUF | 17 | 17 | 385 | 579 | 4,306 | 29 | 18 | 524 | 15 | 44 |
| 2024 | BUF | 17 | 17 | 307 | 483 | 3,731 | 28 | 6 | 531 | 12 | 40 |
| 2025 | BUF | 17 | 17 | 319 | 460 | 3,668 | 25 | 10 | 579 | 14 | 39 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Wyoming | Mountain West | 0 | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Wyoming | Mountain West | 12 | 192 | 341 | 2,996 | 26 | 13 | 485 | 7 | 33 |
| 2017 | Wyoming | Mountain West | 8 | 141 | 251 | 1,658 | 13 | 6 | 207 | 5 | 18 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
42%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.95 — elite athletic ceiling+0.362
4,705 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
4.40s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.270
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+57.8) — getting better faster each year-0.397
235.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.338
Height-adjusted speed: 4.44s — good speed for frame-0.320