Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Josh Freeman
Josh Freeman

Player breakdown

Josh Freeman

Kansas St. · 2009 Draft Class

6-6248 lbs1st round, 17th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~38
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

44%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2009TAM1091582901,8551018161010
2010TAM16162914743,451256364025
2011TAM15153465513,5921622238420
2012TAM16163065584,0652717139027
2013MIN312053190012000
2015IND111528149112401
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006Kansas StateBig 1241302491,651613006
2007Kansas StateBig 12113164993,35318110018
2008Kansas StateBig 12112243822,9452084041434

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

44%

ML model output

Context Prob

44%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.94 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
4.43s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
7,949 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

305.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319
Height-adjusted speed: 4.52s — below average speed for frame-0.290

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)