Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Josh Rosen
Josh Rosen

Player breakdown

Josh Rosen

UCLA · 2018 Draft Class

6-4226 lbs1st round, 10th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~29
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

25%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018ARI14132173932,2781114138011
2019MIA6358109567151301
2021ATL402111902000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2015UCLABig Ten02664473,35120926222
2016UCLABig Ten61372311,9151050010
2017UCLABig Ten112824513,71726100026

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

25%

ML model output

Context Prob

25%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.1) — getting better faster each year+0.344
4.28s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
8,983 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.557
528.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.346
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.299

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)