Player breakdown
Justin Fields
Ohio St. · 2021 Draft Class
6-2227 lbs1st round, 11th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | CHI | 12 | 10 | 159 | 270 | 1,870 | 7 | 10 | 420 | 2 | 9 |
| 2022 | CHI | 15 | 15 | 192 | 318 | 2,242 | 17 | 11 | 1,143 | 8 | 25 |
| 2023 | CHI | 13 | 13 | 227 | 370 | 2,562 | 16 | 9 | 657 | 4 | 20 |
| 2024 | PIT | 10 | 6 | 106 | 161 | 1,106 | 5 | 1 | 289 | 5 | 10 |
| 2025 | NYJ | 9 | 9 | 128 | 204 | 1,259 | 7 | 1 | 383 | 4 | 11 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Georgia | SEC | 4 | 27 | 39 | 328 | 4 | 0 | 266 | 4 | 8 |
| 2019 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 13 | 208 | 308 | 2,953 | 40 | 1 | 471 | 10 | 50 |
| 2020 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 6 | 158 | 225 | 2,100 | 22 | 6 | 383 | 5 | 27 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
27%
ML model output
Context Prob
27%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.99 — elite athletic ceiling+0.361
5,053 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+8.0) — getting better faster each year-0.397
265.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
Height-adjusted speed: 4.33s — elite speed for frame-0.297