Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Justin Fields
Justin Fields

Player breakdown

Justin Fields

Ohio St. · 2021 Draft Class

6-2227 lbs1st round, 11th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2021CHI12101592701,87071042029
2022CHI15151923182,24217111,143825
2023CHI13132273702,562169657420
2024PIT1061061611,10651289510
2025NYJ991282041,25971383411
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018GeorgiaSEC427393284026648
2019Ohio StateBig Ten132083082,9534014711050
2020Ohio StateBig Ten61582252,100226383527

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

27%

ML model output

Context Prob

27%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.99 — elite athletic ceiling+0.361
5,053 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+8.0) — getting better faster each year-0.397
265.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
Height-adjusted speed: 4.33s — elite speed for frame-0.297

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)