Player breakdown
Justin Herbert
Oregon · 2020 Draft Class
6-6236 lbs1st round, 6th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
42%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | LAC | 15 | 15 | 396 | 595 | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 | 36 |
| 2021 | LAC | 17 | 17 | 443 | 672 | 5,014 | 38 | 15 | 302 | 3 | 41 |
| 2022 | LAC | 17 | 17 | 477 | 699 | 4,739 | 25 | 10 | 147 | 0 | 25 |
| 2023 | LAC | 13 | 13 | 297 | 456 | 3,134 | 20 | 7 | 228 | 3 | 23 |
| 2024 | LAC | 17 | 17 | 332 | 504 | 3,870 | 23 | 3 | 306 | 2 | 25 |
| 2025 | LAC | 16 | 16 | 340 | 512 | 3,727 | 26 | 13 | 498 | 2 | 28 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Oregon | Big Ten | 8 | 162 | 255 | 1,936 | 19 | 4 | 161 | 2 | 21 |
| 2017 | Oregon | Big Ten | 7 | 113 | 170 | 1,750 | 13 | 3 | 166 | 5 | 18 |
| 2018 | Oregon | Big Ten | 12 | 221 | 371 | 2,985 | 28 | 8 | 173 | 2 | 30 |
| 2019 | Oregon | Big Ten | 13 | 272 | 408 | 3,333 | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 33 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
42%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.97 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
4.46s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
10,004 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Top Negative Factors
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.353
250.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
4 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319