Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Keith Wenning
Keith Wenning

Player breakdown

Keith Wenning

Ball St. · 2014 Draft Class

6-3218 lbs6th round, 194th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

11%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2010Ball StateMid-American71282351,37314140014
2011Ball StateMid-American82874492,7861911182322
2012Ball StateMid-American93014603,0952410105327
2013Ball StateMid-American122964543,93334645539

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

11%

ML model output

Context Prob

11%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.25s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
11,187 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Best-season yards rank: top 8% in class — class-best peak output+0.200

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.83 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+1.9) — getting better faster each year-0.383
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.350

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)