Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kellen Clemens
Kellen Clemens

Player breakdown

Kellen Clemens

Oregon · 2006 Draft Class

6-2224 lbs2nd round, 49th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

18%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006NYJ20010001000
2007NYJ1081302501,52951011116
2008NYJ20352601-300
2009NYJ101132612500100
2010NYJ1012600911
2011STL334891546213713
2012STL20133901500
2013STL1091422421,673876408
2014SDG20131000000
2015SDG20566310-101
2016SDG12001000-100
2017LAC80683601-500
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003OregonBig Ten131933102,412202288222
2004OregonBig Ten102233722,5482210190426
2005OregonBig Ten81852892,406194228019

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

18%

ML model output

Context Prob

18%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.1) — getting better faster each year+0.351
7,366 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Composite college score: 11 — above avg multi-metric profile+0.192

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.551
237.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.330
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)