Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kellen Mond
Kellen Mond

Player breakdown

Kellen Mond

Texas A&M · 2021 Draft Class

3rd round, 66th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

15%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2021MIN1023500000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017Texas A&MSEC61172271,37586340311
2018Texas A&MSEC112243892,967238389629
2019Texas A&MSEC112454002,802199383726
2020Texas A&MSEC81882972,282193294423

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

15%

ML model output

Context Prob

15%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

9,426 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.268
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.260
Improvement accelerating (+1.2) — getting better faster each year+0.208

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.546
261.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.325
4 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)