Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett

Player breakdown

Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh · 2022 Draft Class

6-3217 lbs1st round, 20th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~28
EliteUnitas x1All-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

85%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2022PIT13122453892,40479237310
2023PIT12122013242,070645417
2024PHI512542291211513
2025LVR622845188122201
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017PittsburghACC13966509119323
2018PittsburghACC71692811,833126195315
2019PittsburghACC72624302,737109105212
2020PittsburghACC92033322,408139145821
2021PittsburghACC133344974,319427241547

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

52%

ML model output

Context Prob

52%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.458
Strong ascending production slope (+952 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.294
4.29s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+7.5) — getting better faster each year-0.383
5 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.347
319.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.333

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)