Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kevin Hogan
Kevin Hogan

Player breakdown

Kevin Hogan

Stanford · 2016 Draft Class

6-3218 lbs5th round, 162nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

4%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2016CLE4014261040210511
2017CLE414675517457104
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012StanfordACC61091521,09693263211
2013StanfordACC111702772,487209314222
2014StanfordACC92183322,603178245522
2015StanfordACC01942832,644247312529

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

4%

ML model output

Context Prob

4%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.31s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
8,830 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Composite college score: 13 — elite multi-metric profile+0.168

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.88 — elite athletic ceiling-0.437
Improvement accelerating (+1.4) — getting better faster each year-0.397
339.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.334

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)