Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins

Player breakdown

Kirk Cousins

Michigan St. · 2012 Draft Class

4th round, 102nd overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~38
Low25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

31%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012WAS313348466432204
2013WAS5381155854471404
2014WAS651262041,71010920010
2015WAS16163795434,166291148534
2016WAS16164066064,917251296429
2017WAS16163475404,0932713179431
2018MIN16164256064,2983010123131
2019MIN15153074443,60326663127
2020MIN16163495164,2653513156136
2021MIN16163725614,221337115134
2022MIN17174246434,547291497231
2023MIN882163112,33118525018
2024ATL14143034533,50818160018
2025ATL1081662691,7211057111
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2008Michigan StateBig Ten2283827421002
2009Michigan StateBig Ten101983282,68019960019
2010Michigan StateBig Ten112163202,7052090020
2011Michigan StateBig Ten122403693,0162470024

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

31%

ML model output

Context Prob

31%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

8,675 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.268
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.260
Composite college score: 11 — above avg multi-metric profile+0.168

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.546
Improvement accelerating (+10.0) — getting better faster each year-0.397
247.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)