Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kyle Orton
Kyle Orton

Player breakdown

Kyle Orton

Purdue · 2005 Draft Class

6-4233 lbs4th round, 106th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

23%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2005CHI15151903681,8699134409
2007CHI33438047832-103
2008CHI15152724652,972181249321
2009DEN16153365413,802211271021
2010DEN13132934983,65320998020
2011KAN43599777912-401
2012DAL109108910001
2013DAL31335139822802
2014BUF12122874473,018181014119
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003PurdueBig Ten122704172,688141456317
2004PurdueBig Ten102133422,809285100331

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

23%

ML model output

Context Prob

23%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.1) — getting better faster each year+0.344
4.52s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
5,497 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.86 — elite athletic ceiling-0.559
249.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.337
Height-adjusted speed: 4.79s — below average speed for frame-0.290

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)