Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Kyle Trask
Kyle Trask

Player breakdown

Kyle Trask

Florida · 2021 Draft Class

6-5236 lbs2nd round, 64th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~28
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

41%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2022TAM10392300000
2023TAM2001000-100
2024TAM4011500-400
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2018FloridaSEC2142216210001
2019FloridaSEC112133152,6362460024
2020FloridaSEC113014374,28343850346

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

41%

ML model output

Context Prob

41%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+2060 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
7,081 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
4.60s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.270

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.562
Improvement accelerating (+25.4) — getting better faster each year-0.390
295.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.338

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)